State of the Union – 2026 Edition
A Front-Row Seat from Both Sides of the Fence
Lee McKnight, our VP Sales and Marketing asked me to write a post on the “state of the union” and I agreed to deliver the goods.
So here we go…
I’ve been in this business since 2005, when I started RSW/US here in the states.
Today we represent close over 40 marketing agency and other professional services firms, helping them find new opportunities though our two outsourced new business programs (RSW/US and LAUNCH).
I also run a search consultancy (RSW/AgencySearch), where we help marketers find new and better agencies.
This multi-layered perspective puts me and our company in a unique position, hearing it all from both sides of the fence.
Déjà Vu All Over Again: 2008, the Pandemic, and Now
So with that as a back-drop, what I’m seeing here as we roll into the start of 2026 is an environment that looks very much like the environment we faced as we were coming out of the ’08 recession and very much like the environment we faced as we came out of the pandemic.
The start of these three events (this being the third) all started out in similar fashion – just driven by different factors.
In all three cases, marketers got nervous, they pulled back or slowed their investment in marketing and the agency world suffered.
But it was those agencies that kept their head down and pushed through it were the agencies that prospered.
As many of us suspected, marketers couldn’t hold back forever.
They eventually needed to start spending and supporting their brands again.
I’ll never forget when the pandemic hit and one of our clients’ reaction was to pause our outsourced new business program. We convinced him otherwise, give him a little discount (than you PPP) to help the cause, and sure enough within the two months that followed he won a sizeable piece of new business.
What we saw heading into 2024 was a fear of recession and a complete uncertainty about Trump and what chaos he might cause. He did and so for many agencies 2024 and the first half of 2025 were tough.
What we’re seeing now is the makings of what we saw at the end of the recession and the end of the pandemic: things starting to pick back up.
Beginning the mid-way point in 2025, we started to see more clients win new business and more marketers interested in wanting to meet with our clients.
In our most recent New Year Outlook survey, 60% of marketers told us that they expect to spend more money to support their brands in 2026.
Was on a call with a long-standing client based out of Oklahoma yesterday and we helped get his agency involved in three agency reviews that are finally looking to break and decide on a preferred partner (hopefully his firm).
These “reviews” have been in process for a good 3-4 months and it finally appears that they’re ready to make a move.
Why 2026 Sets Up Well for Prepared Agencies
And while not out of the woods on the Trump train, things are (and hopefully will continue to be) a bit more balanced.
At the very least we can say with some degree of confidence that his unpredictability is now predictable so there’s less waiting and seeing.
Reductions in interest rates certainly have helped ease concerns and we’re seeing more business investment activity, which only bodes well for consumer spending and marketing investment.
Siemens announced $1B investment
Eli Lilly investing $3B in Pennsylvania
So where do we land at the end of 2026?
We land in a good place because:
- Economy in general is in good shape and all this investment should only help improve it.
- Interest rates will continue to drop, which should spur even more consumer spending activity.
- Marketers will stop dragging their feet and wins for agencies will only improve.
- A Democratic-led House will temper the chaos even further.
- The move to “out of house” (turning to agencies more for marketing support) will only continue.
- And Ai-mania will settle. Agencies (if they’re good and on it) will lead their clients versus letting their clients use Ai to take away from agency partners.
Will the agency world ever look like the agency world did 20 years ago when I started RSW/US?
No it won’t, but that doesn’t mean firms can’t find their way to a better place, re-defining their value and their positioning in the market to help move their agencies forward.
